What are the chances of an alcoholic staying sober without support through groups or therapy?

My husband had drug problems in the past which he went to rehab for and has been clean for 9 years. However, he’s still a heavy drinker. I’ve recently moved out and told him I’d come back if he gets sober and the help he needs. He claims to have stopped drinking, but I have no way of knowing for sure. He’s says he’s been through the rehab thing and knows what they will say and suggest and he’ll do that without them. I disagree, but I’ve never had a substance abuse problem. Is sobriety without help going to last or is the possibility of him returning to the drinking a sure thing? I was hoping to move back in before Christmas, but I’m afraid the drinking isn’t over for good. Any insight or advice? We have a 5 and 3 year old and I’m pregnant…that’s why I had to leave.

The Harvard Medical School says that the vast majority of the people who successfully quit drinking for a year or more — eighty percent of them — do it alone, all by themselves, without any treatment program or “support group”.

http://www.orange-papers.org/orange-effectiveness.html#Harvard_Mental

“There is a high rate of recovery among alcoholics and addicts, treated and untreated. According to one estimate, heroin addicts break the habit in an average of 11 years. Another estimate is that at least 50% of alcoholics eventually free themselves although only 10% are ever treated. One recent study found that 80% of all alcoholics who recover for a year or more do so on their own, some after being unsuccessfully treated. When a group of these self-treated alcoholics was interviewed, 57% said they simply decided that alcohol was bad for them. Twenty-nine percent said health problems, frightening experiences, accidents, or blackouts persuaded them to quit. Others used such phrases as “Things were building up” or “I was sick and tired of it.” Support from a husband or wife was important in sustaining the resolution.”
Treatment of Drug Abuse and Addiction — Part III, The Harvard Mental Health Letter, October 1995.

Shirley just didn’t get it.  After receiving three DUIs and after getting rushed to the emergency room twice for alcohol poisoning she still could not stop drinking.  To make things worse, she had already gone to alcohol treatment three times.  Ironically, one time after going through rehab, Shirley stayed sober for three-and-a-half years.

As soon as something problematic came her way, however, she “dealt with” things by drinking abusively.  Once again Shirley is now in jail and once again she is undergoing mandatory alcohol rehab while she is incarcerated.

This time, however, she will not get released from jail until she has successfully undergone alcohol rehabilitation and remained sober for at least ten weeks.  Furthermore, she will have to agree to attend outpatient alcohol treatment and accept random alcohol testing before she is released from jail.  Will Shirley eventually “get it” and avoid drinking altogether?  Only time will tell.